A few weeks ago I sat down with Colin True from the Rock Fight podcast after a long hiatus. One question he asked stuck with me: "What does it feel like to watch The Great American Drama unfold from afar?" Living abroad, I’ve had a front-row seat to how global perceptions of the U.S. are shifting, and how that’s reshaping tourism in real time.
Over the last few months, international travelers have started canceling, postponing, or rerouting their plans to visit the United States. The reasons range from political tensions to personal safety concerns, and the ripple effects are starting to show. Let’s dig into the latest trends, what’s driving the change, and how it might reshape the outdoor industry and tourism landscape longer term.
Canada Pulls Back
Canadians are leading the retreat. Between tariffs on Canadian goods, souring attitudes toward the U.S. administration, and a weak Canadian dollar, it’s no surprise that Canadians are rethinking their travel plans. 62% of Canadians say they’ll avoid the U.S. this year, and a third of travelers with plans have already canceled them. Travel boards in Canada are seizing the moment, encouraging locals to explore their home turf instead.
Land-border entries by Canadians dropped nearly 32% in March 2025 compared to a year earlier, with half a million fewer crossings logged in February. OAG, which tracks aviation data, shows a 70% decrease in its April update for forward flight bookings from Canada to the U.S. for this summer. Forward flight bookings (flights booked in advance) are generally a very reliable indicator of traveler intention and overall sentiment.
Tour companies that operate in or sell US-based tours are seeing the impact as well. Lorna Hundt, CEO of the tour company Great Canadian Holidays, said most of the firm's U.S. tours are now "dead in the water" because so many of their Canadian customers have backed out. By some estimates, a 10% drop in Canadian tourism (about where we’re at currently) could mean a $2.1 billion loss for the U.S. travel economy. Tour operators, airlines, and destinations that rely heavily on Canadian visitors are bracing for a tough year.
Europe and Asia
And it’s not just our neighbors to the north. Across the Atlantic and Pacific, similar things are happening. Anecdotally, I’ve spoken to multiple people in my sphere who have cancelled travel plans. Friends that work in media and journalism are being told to wipe their phones or bring burners if they travel to the US. For others, business travel to the US has been cancelled altogether. Several European governments, including the UK, France, Ireland, and Germany, have updated travel advisories, warning citizens about visa issues, detainment risks, and discriminatory policies.
It’s not a concern without merit. Two German backpackers were recently detained and deported after failing to show confirmed lodging for every night of a five-week trip. They were traveling with an ESTA, which does not necessarily guarantee entry, but headlines like these will only continue to sour perceptions for international travelers. Western European travel to the U.S. dropped 12% in March, but the decline was sharper among German travelers, which are down more than 28% year-over-year.
The travel forecasting company Tourism Economics, as recently as December 2024 anticipated the U.S. would have a 9% increase in international arrivals this year, but revised its annual outlook to predict a 9.4% decline (I think it’s going to get worse). The CEO of Accor, one of the world’s largest hotel groups, said that forward bookings for travelers going to America this summer are down 25%. The Middle East appears to be the only region bucking this trend, showing a YOY increase in visitation.
Why does it matter?
Like everything, there are a series of domino effects from a shift like this. The $1.3T outdoor recreation economy is made up of not only domestic visitors to national parks, etc, but also less obvious "outdoor recreation” activities (like theme parks, golf courses, etc). In places like Orlando, Miami, and LA, a drop in international arrivals could mean hundreds of thousands fewer theme park tickets sold, and huge effects on local lodging and other businesses.
Outside of cities, gateway towns near national parks will feel the crunch. Approximately a third of all international tourists visit a national park site during their time in the US, and by association, support the businesses in and around those areas. It’ll hit a wide swath of the tourism-adjacent industries. Rental cars. Hotels. Small-town stores. Restaurants.
Take Maine, for example. Outdoor recreation is one of Maine’s biggest tourism draws, accounting for 3.7% of Maine’s GDP, among the highest in the country. And, with its close geographic proximity to Canada, many of their visitors in the spring and summer are from Quebec.
This year, in places like Bar Harbor, gateway to Acadia National Park, hotel bookings for April and May are down significantly heading into the high season. Local restaurants are shortening their hours, and tour operators report a sharp decline in advanced international group bookings.
Acadia National Park welcomed around 4 million visitors in 2024, but the towns that surround it run on thin margins and short peak seasons. International travelers book more guided tours, eat out frequently, and spend more per day than domestic visitors. While international visitors may represent a smaller portion of Maine's overall tourist population compared to domestic travelers, their higher per capita spending makes them a vital component of the state's tourism industry.
It’s an issue that extends beyond Maine. In towns across the country like Jackson, Moab, Oakhurst, and Springdale,y tour guides, gear shops, and local hotels are having similar conversations. Rick Howe, of the Jackson Hole Chamber of Commerce, told WyoFile that “June and July are not as strong as we would expect — they’re not picking up as quickly as they [usually] do.” Their 60-day outlook shows about 54% of coming hotel booking days falling short of 2024 numbers.
It's a reminder that we may underestimate just how much international travelers contribute to these rural economies, especially when their absence ripples beyond lodging and into retail, recreation, and local tax bases.
A permanent shift?
If we look into the future, I’m curious how this will affect travel trends in years to come, or at least for the next four years. Oxford Economics warns that the U.S. could leave $64 billion on the table in 2025 as both domestic and international travel soften. If travelers find new favorites abroad, these “replacement habits” become trends that are increasingly hard to undo.
We’re already seeing early signs that this is the case. Canadian vacation rental bookings in Europe are up 32% this summer compared to last year. Bermuda expects a 20% boost in Canadian tourism revenue. Europe, Mexico, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, they’re all stepping in to claim dollars that might’ve once gone stateside by loosening entry restrictions and marketing themselves as safe, open, and welcoming.
These travel trends away from the US come at a time when cities and tourism-based businesses are looking towards the 2026 World Cup and 2028 Olympics. Major international events like this would normally be a huge driver of tourism dollars, but long visa wait times and unfriendly optics risk sending fans to the venues in Canada or Mexico instead for the World Cup. U.S. Travel warns that the World Cup could draw over 6 million overseas visitors, but Geoff Freeman, president and CEO of the non-profit US Travel Association, told Reuters back in September that “If you don’t have your visa today, you’re not getting here for a World Cup that’s taking place in 2026.” Add to that completely soured foreign relations, and you’ve got a bit of a mess on your hands.
Tourism runs on perception as much as infrastructure. If policies and rhetoric at the border don’t shift, travelers will.
